Topic: Termination of Satellite Analysis Branch’s Manual Dvorak Estimates 


Date/Time Issued: July 10, 2026 1400 UTC 

 

Product(s) or Data Impacted: Manual Dvorak Estimates for the South Pacific (TXPQ20 KNES - TXPQ29 KNES), Northwest Pacific (TXST20 KNES - TXST29 KNES), and North Indian Ocean (TXPS20 KNES - TXPS29 KNES)


Date/Time of Initial Impact: September 8, 2026 0000 UTC

 

Date/Time of Expected End: NA (Termination of Product)

 

Length of Impact: NA

 

Details/Specifics of Change:


Originally developed by Vernon Dvorak between 1969 and 1984, this manual technique is used to determine tropical cyclone intensity—including tropical depressions, tropical storms, and major typhoons or hurricanes—relying solely on visible and infrared satellite imagery.


This serves as the 60-day notice that the generation of manual Dvorak estimates by the Satellite Analysis Branch for the South Pacific, Northwest Pacific, and North Indian Ocean will be discontinued effective September 10, 2026. Users are advised to transition to alternative estimates provided by NOAA’s National Weather Service, the Department of War (DOW), and other Regional Specialized Meteorological Centers (RSMCs).


Please refer to the table below for details on where to obtain alternative Dvorak estimates:


Basin

Continuing Sources of Dvorak Estimates  

South Pacific

SAB planned termination date of September 8, 2026 

JTWC, RSMC Nadi, RSMC Honolulu (CPHC), TCWC Darwin, TCWC Brisbane, 

TCWC Port Moresby, TCWC Wellington

South Indian

 SAB terminated Dvorak estimates on  July 1, 2025 

JTWC, RSMC La Reunion, RSMC New Delhi, TCWC Perth, TCWC Darwin, 

TCWC Jakarta

North Indian

SAB planned termination date of September 8, 2026 

JTWC, RSMC New Delhi

West Pacific 

SAB planned termination date of September 8, 2026  

JTWC, RSMC Tokyo, RSMC New Delhi, Taiwan Weather Bureau

Central Pacific 

SAB terminated Dvorak estimates on May 10, 2026

RSMC Honolulu (CPHC),  JTWC

East Pacific

SAB terminated Dvorak estimates on May 10, 2026

Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center)

North Atlantic

SAB terminated Dvorak estimates on May 10, 2026

Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center)



Web Site(s) for applicable information: 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html


Contact Information for Further Information: Please email User Services at spsd.userservices@noaa.gov or Tropical Team Lead Paul Lee at paul.lee@noaa.gov 


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